This is the conclusion reached by the authors of a new study by the Ukraine Support Tracker team at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, who analysed the figure announced by Germany in detail. Their report was published on Thursday, 8 October, according to *Kommersant Ukrainian*.
In August, the German government estimated its support for Ukraine as at 30 June 2026 at 100 billion euros. Of this, 43.3 billion euros consisted of civilian aid, whilst 57.6 billion euros was military aid, “provided or earmarked for the coming years”. This figure quickly became the subject of political and public debate, but what exactly it comprises has rarely been explained, the report notes.
Furthermore, since June 2025, the German government has not published detailed data on military aid to Ukraine, which constitutes the largest part of bilateral support. The total figures are still published, but without a detailed breakdown, making it difficult to assess the actual volume of aid.
Most civilian aid remains in Germany
Of the €43.3 billion in civilian aid announced, €35.9 billion, or around 80 per cent, was spent in Germany, the report states. The largest item was the €27.45 billion paid out in civil aid (Bürgergeld) to Ukrainian refugees, whilst a further €7.15 billion was received by the federal states and local authorities for their accommodation and social support.
A further €1.3 billion was allocated to export and investment guarantees for German companies operating in Ukraine. The authors of the study note that, consequently, these funds were not directly channelled to the Ukrainian state either.
According to the analysis, €7.4 billion in civil aid was channelled to Ukraine. Of this, €6.3 billion was earmarked for humanitarian aid, emergency support for the energy sector and the reconstruction of Ukrainian state institutions; €1 billion was contributed to an account for the Ukrainian state managed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); and a further €0.1 billion was used to alleviate the debt burden through debt service suspension.
Military aid also requires clarification
“Most of what the German government considers to be civilian support for Ukraine is, in fact, spent in Germany – on Ukrainians living there,” said Christoph Trebesch, head of Ukraine Support Tracker. According to him, such expenditure does not help the Ukrainian government to counter Russian attacks.
The amount of military aid announced by the German government totals €57.6 billion. According to the federal budget, Germany allocated around €22.7 billion for military aid to Ukraine between 2022 and 2025, with a further €11.6 billion earmarked for 2026.
A further €22 billion relates to future commitments. Of this, €10.1 billion has already been firmly pledged, whilst €12 billion consists of commitments relating to future budgetary expenditure. It is not known how much of the funds allocated for 2026 has already been disbursed.
Consequently, the amount of military aid subject to scrutiny totals €56.3 billion. This is €1.3 billion less than the figure stated by the German government, though the government does not explain exactly how this discrepancy arises.
€100 billion does not reflect actual aid
Overall, according to an assessment by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the stated €100 billion can partly be classified as ‘bilateral aid’. Around €41 billion was actually channelled to support Ukraine, €36 billion was spent in Germany, and a further €22 billion consists of future commitments that have not yet been fulfilled.
“Germany is Ukraine’s largest European donor. But the German government’s communication regarding its aid is becoming less transparent,” said Trebesch. According to him, the figure of 100 billion euros is misleading if it is referred to as ‘bilateral aid to Ukraine’.
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.
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