The expected decline in production will be driven primarily by lower corn and wheat harvests. Lower volumes are also forecast for oats, sorghum, and rye, according to the ukragroconsult agency, citing IGS.
Global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to reach 1.306 billion metric tons, which is 37 million metric tons less than the previous season. According to the IGC forecast, the wheat harvest will decline by 23 million metric tons to 821 million metric tons. Compared to the June report, estimates for both crops have remained virtually unchanged.
At the same time, global grain consumption could reach a new all-time high. Against the backdrop of high demand and declining production, the IGC estimates that global carryover stocks will decrease by 26 million metric tons to 610 million metric tons, which will exacerbate market tensions.
Global grain trade volume for the 2026/27 season is projected at 450 million metric tons, which is 17 million metric tons less than the previous season’s figure. The main reason will be a reduction in wheat and barley shipments to the Middle East, North Africa, and certain Asian countries.
The “Uncertainty Problem” in the Black Sea Region
Significant export resources from the Black Sea region are expected to support global grain trade. However, export prospects have become less predictable due to the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war and the resulting disruptions to export logistics, the IGC notes.
The market for oilseeds is expected to follow the opposite trend. Global soybean production could increase by 10 million metric tons—to a record 441 million metric tons—thanks to higher yields in Brazil and the United States. Soybean consumption is projected at 445 million metric tons, and global trade could grow by 2% driven by demand from Asian countries.
Against the backdrop of tighter grain supplies and strong demand, the IGC price index for grains and oilseeds has risen by 7% since the publication of the June report. In July, it was also nearly 12% higher than last year’s level, indicating that the upward price trend in global agricultural markets is continuing.
