The water level in the Dubasari Reservoir is currently stable. However, a static image of the lake does not reflect the condition and availability of water throughout the Dniester River basin.
The current stability at Dubasari is due exclusively to negotiations and operational agreements that have made it possible to maintain water discharge from Ukraine at a constant rate of 75–85 m³/s.
The Dubăsari Reservoir is not an independent source and does not have sufficient capacity to create an autonomous strategic reserve, even for a short period. Its volume depends directly and entirely on the inflow of water from the upper reaches, from Ukraine.
The main problem—which is invisible from the lower reaches of the river but is of critical importance to the Republic of Moldova—lies in the Novodnestrovsk Hydraulic Complex, where water reserves are depleting at an alarming rate. Throughout July, the water level in the Novodnestrovsk Reservoir dropped by 1.00 m.
In August (as of August 25), the level had already dropped by another 1.00 m. The operational forecast indicates a total decline of approximately 1.25–1.30 m by the end of August.
Mountainous tributaries are bringing less and less water into the reservoir. While the inflow was 38 m³/s in early August, the average daily inflow has dropped to just 22.38 m³/s over the past 8 days.
On the Mandatory Reduction of Discharges
In practice, to maintain the required water flow in the Dniester downstream at 75–85 m³/s (including maintaining the water level in Dubăsari), three to four times more water was released from the Novodnestrovsk Reservoir than was flowing in. This was achieved using previously accumulated reserves, which are now nearly depleted.
Under current hydrological conditions, maintaining even this minimum water flow (75–85 m³/s) is becoming extremely difficult and risks becoming impossible unless the natural inflow increases. If discharges from Ukraine are forcibly reduced, the drop in water level will rapidly and directly affect the Dubăsari Reservoir and the water intake stations downstream.
In this context, on Friday, August 28, a new meeting of the Dniester Commission with the Ukrainian side will take place, during which the hydrological balance will be reviewed and the parties will attempt to find compromise solutions to protect the catchment basins and the river ecosystem.
