“GDP growth will slow to 1.0–1.6% in 2026 due to the effects of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the fallout from the war in the Middle East, and risks remain extremely high,” according to an IMF press release announcing the agreement on the first review of the EFF program. The IMF noted that macroeconomic stability has generally been maintained, despite Russia’s war, as well as the fallout from the war in the Middle East, thanks to sound macroeconomic policies and substantial external support from Ukraine’s partners. This was reported by “Interfax-Ukraine.”
Government and NBU Forecasts
In April, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current year to 1.3% from 1.8%, but kept it at 2.8% for next year, and expects it to accelerate to 3.7% in 2028.
The government’s forecast, included in the 2026 state budget, calls for 2.4% growth, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev recently told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency that it would be revised downward, though he did not specify the new figure.
