Bill Gates. Photo by Martial Trezzini / EPA
In a new essay, Gates writes that the impact of artificial intelligence could be greater than that of most previous technological revolutions. AI has the potential to transform the labor market, affecting both white-collar and blue-collar professions, exacerbate cyber and biological threats, and eventually lead to the emergence of systems that humans will find difficult to control.
Gates believes that artificial intelligence could become “the greatest equalizer ever invented”—or “the worst source of inequality.” Which scenario plays out, he says, depends on the decisions people are making right now.
AI Could Transform the Labor Market
Gates believes that comparing AI to previous technological revolutions is not entirely accurate. In the past, the disappearance of certain professions was accompanied by the emergence of new types of work that required human knowledge and skills.
Now the situation may be different: artificial intelligence itself is capable of performing a significant portion of intellectual work. According to Gates’ forecast, major changes await the legal profession, customer service, medicine, software development, and manufacturing.
At the same time, advances in robotics could extend the impact of AI to blue-collar professions as well. Without targeted intervention, there may end up being significantly fewer new jobs than there are today.
Gates calls this transition period one of the most turbulent in human history. At the same time, in his view, governments do not yet have a coordinated plan of action.
“High Probability of a Negative Outcome”
In an interview with Axios, Gates stated that the current pace of AI development is a source of serious concern for him.
“Given the current course and speed, there is a very high probability of a negative outcome,” he said.
The entrepreneur also warned of growing risks in the areas of cybersecurity, biology, human relations, and control over AI systems. According to him, many problems that were considered remote until recently now require a response.
Gates criticized both major U.S. political parties, stating that neither demonstrates a sufficient understanding of the scale of the problem.
What Gates Proposes
The entrepreneur is calling on governments to create new institutions to coordinate AI policy. Their work should encompass national security, employment, education, taxation, and healthcare.
At the international level, Gates proposes an organization that would combine elements of nuclear inspections and international aviation regulation.
He also believes it is possible to reserve certain types of activities for humans and to impose taxes on the use of AI and robots. These measures, in his view, will help mitigate the impact of automation on the labor market.
Gates acknowledges that global coordination will be extremely difficult due to geopolitical conflicts.
“If someone had a convincing plan to slow down the global development of AI, I would probably support it. However, I don’t think that will happen,” he writes.
According to Gates, the leaders of major tech companies and AI labs are far more concerned about what’s happening than their public statements might suggest.
“I don’t know anyone who isn’t concerned about this,” he said.
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