Future market trends will largely depend on global milk supply. In the U.S., milk production increased by about 2% over the past year, and in New Zealand, by 4%. Further growth is expected in these countries—major global milk producers. Meanwhile, the outlook for milk production in the EU remains uncertain. European producers are facing high costs for fuel and fertilizers (in the feed production chain). At the same time, milk prices are about 30% lower than a year ago, according to Infagro.
Against this backdrop, price trends in the global cheese market may diverge increasingly depending on the type of product. Increased production and capacity in the U.S. will put pressure on cheddar prices, while limited milk supply in Europe may continue to support mozzarella prices. At the same time, further growth in global cheese trade will intensify competition among the major producing regions.
