USDA Forecasts Wider Global Wheat Deficit in 2026/27

USDA: the global imbalance between wheat production and consumption will widen

Global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year is estimated at 822.39 million tonnes, whilst consumption is projected to reach 827.9 million tonnes. In other words, the global consumption forecast by analysts at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will exceed production of this cereal by 5.51 million tonnes. A month earlier, the forecast for the potential imbalance was significantly lower – at 1.6 million tonnes.

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This is evidenced by data from the USDA’s October WASDE report. The deterioration in the global supply-demand balance heightens the risks of further increases in wheat prices. According to expert estimates, the deterioration in the global balance could help stabilise wheat prices within the range of $230–260/t. Global wheat prices have risen by 44.8% over the past year, and the reduction in supply is creating the conditions for prices to remain high.

At the same time, the USDA has lowered its forecast for global wheat trade to 208.97 million tonnes (2.8 million tonnes below the September estimate). End-of-year global stocks are forecast at 276.04 million tonnes, which is 250,000 tonnes less than the previous forecast.

Against the backdrop of a deteriorating global supply-demand balance, some exporters are stepping up their shipments. In particular, the forecast for wheat exports from the EU has been raised from 28 to 32 million tonnes (with production at around 133 million tonnes).

However, not all wheat-exporting countries are able to fully realise their export potential due to logistical constraints. In particular, the USDA has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports from 43 to 40 million tonnes due to disruptions at Black Sea ports and a slowdown in shipments, whilst the country’s ending stocks have been increased from 16.09 to 19.09 million tonnes. For Ukraine, the wheat export forecast remains unchanged at 12.5 million tonnes, despite an expected increase in the harvest to 26 million tonnes. Ukraine’s export potential is constrained by Russian attacks on port infrastructure, the limited capacity of alternative routes and high logistics costs. As a result, Ukraine’s ending stocks of wheat could rise to 6.1 million tonnes (compared with 2 million tonnes in the previous season).

This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.

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