It was previously reported that the volume of construction work had fallen by 12%, a 6.8-fold decrease in residential space commissioned, a 3.5% drop in the number of building permits issued, and a decline of more than 75% in the number of apartments sold in Chisinau.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in January–March 2026, investment in residential real estate fell by 13.5% to 792 million lei.
By comparison, in the first quarter of last year, investment in residential real estate totaled 905 million lei, which was 18.9% higher than in the same period of 2024.
After two years of growth, the market has faced a slowdown
The situation is particularly concerning, as real estate investments had been growing over the past two years.
Thus, in 2024 compared to 2023:
– investment in residential real estate grew by 20.4% and reached 4.44 billion lei;
– investment in non-residential real estate increased by 3.6% and amounted to 5.5 billion lei.
In 2025, the growth continued:
– investment in residential real estate grew by 29.5%, to 5.8 billion lei;
– investment in non-residential real estate increased by 10.5%, to 6.1 billion lei.
However, in the first quarter of 2026, positive trends persisted only in the non-residential real estate segment: investments grew by 3.5% to 776 million lei.
The main problem is that, alongside the decline in housing investment, there remains a significant supply shortage. According to some estimates, demand in the real estate market exceeds supply by approximately 30%.
In other words, despite high public demand for housing:
– the number of new construction projects is declining;
– in the first quarter, the volume of new construction fell by 7.1% compared to the same period last year;
– the volume of residential units commissioned is decreasing;
– investment in residential buildings is declining.
As a result, the real estate market is showing signs of a serious slowdown.
The situation may worsen
There are several factors that could further intensify pressure on the construction market.
First, funding has been discontinued for the “First Home” government program, which allowed certain categories of citizens to purchase housing on more affordable terms.
Second, credit terms are becoming less attractive to buyers.
Internal migration is having an additional impact. It is becoming increasingly noticeable: while the 2014 population and housing census showed that one in five citizens permanently residing in Moldova lived in Chisinau, by 2024 this figure had risen to one in four.
The urbanization process affects not only the capital but also other cities and municipalities.
The population growth in Chisinau driven by Ukrainian refugees is also putting pressure on the market. According to various estimates, in recent years they have increased the capital’s population by approximately 8–10%.
At the same time, two important sectors of the economy—construction and real estate—are facing a deteriorating situation.
Their importance to the country’s economy remains high. According to official data for 2025:
– the construction sector’s share of GDP was 8%;
– the real estate market’s share was 7.2%.
The market requires a comprehensive approach
All of the above demonstrates the need for urgent measures to improve the situation.
These measures must take into account both social and economic aspects. This is not about piecemeal solutions, but rather a comprehensive approach that will stabilize the market and create conditions for its further development.
I outlined my vision for solving this problem earlier this year in an open letter to Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu. Now that the situation has become more complex, I believe it is necessary to revisit this issue.
In addition, I have outlined my views on the development of the real estate market in a separate article.
One thing is clear: the time for action has come. Today, there is still an opportunity to change the situation and create conditions for the recovery of two markets that are vital to the economy.
Mircea Baciu, Moldovan entrepreneur
