
Friedrich Merz
According to the German magazine DER SPIEGEL, the CDU is already discussing possible scenarios for his replacement, whilst potential successors are beginning to position themselves ahead of the ensuing leadership battle.
The CDU is bracing for new elections
As DER SPIEGEL notes in its 13 September article, the positions of Hendrik Wüst, Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia, and Markus Söder, Minister-President of Bavaria, have strengthened particularly noticeably. Both politicians are seen as possible candidates for the federal party leadership and the post of chancellor, though neither is currently interested in an open confrontation with Merz.
According to the publication’s assessment, Wüst currently holds the advantage thanks to his political profile and the upcoming state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia. A victory there could strengthen his position and lay the groundwork for a subsequent bid at federal level.
Söder, for his part, is keen to prevent Wüst from rising too quickly. Consequently, both of Merz’s potential rivals are effectively biding their time for the moment.
The situation may change following the elections on 20 September in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. According to SPIEGEL, there are fears within the CDU that a further decline in results could turn internal dissatisfaction with Merz into an open struggle for his resignation.
The situation in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania appears particularly worrying for the party leadership. The article notes that support for the CDU there could fall below 5 per cent. In that case, the party risks failing to win any seats in the state parliament at all, which would deal a serious blow to Merz’s position.
Merz acknowledges loss of trust
Following the CDU’s defeat in Saxony-Anhalt, the Chancellor himself is attempting to frame the situation as an opportunity for political course correction. Speaking to party representatives, Merz acknowledged that the government had lost the trust of a significant proportion of the public, but expressed confidence that the situation could still be rectified.
“If we do everything right together, I am absolutely certain that by the end of 2026 we will find ourselves in a completely different position,” the publication quotes Merz as saying. “There are many reasons for confidence and optimism in our country.”
However, as SPIEGEL notes, this confidence is not yet shared within the coalition. Dissatisfaction with the Chancellor is growing not only amongst opposition figures, but also within his own party and the governing coalition.
Particularly telling was the stance taken by Manuela Schwesig, Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, from the SPD – the party in coalition with the CDU. According to SPIEGEL, she criticised Merz’s manner of communicating with the public and claimed that the Chancellor himself was creating problems for the government.
That said, the SPD is not yet calling for a snap federal election. On the contrary, according to the publication, the Social Democrats might support another candidate from the CDU/CSU bloc if the question of replacing the Chancellor does indeed arise.
For Merz himself, this means that his position depends not only on the government’s popularity, but also on his ability to maintain control over his own party.
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