Sunflower
USDA forecasts sunflower production in Ukraine in 2026/27 season at 13.5 million tons (against 11 million tons in 2025/26). That is, the crop may grow by 2.5 million tons, or almost 23%. This means that Ukraine will resume sunflower production after a 10-year low in the current marketing season, Latifundist writes.
In Russia, sunflower production in the new season will also increase from 17.5 million tons to 19.2 million tons (+1.7 million tons, or about 10%). In the 2025/26 season Russia was ahead of Ukraine in sunflower production by 6.5 million tons, and in the new season the gap may narrow to 5.7 million tons.
Sunflower oil
USDA forecasts the most significant change in the market segment of sunflower oil. Its production in Ukraine in 2026/27 season is forecasted at 5.633 million tons (against 4.73 million tons in 2025/26). This is an increase of 903 thousand tons, or about 19%.
In Russia, production will also grow – from 6.897 million tons to 7.517 million tons (+620 thousand tons, or 9%).
The difference between countries in oil production will narrow: in 2025/26 – 2.17 million tons, in 2026/27 – 1.88 million tons.
Sunflower oil exports: Ukraine increases supplies faster than Russia
USDA estimates sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 season at 5.1 million tons (vs. 4.375 million tons in 2025/26). This is an increase of 725,000 tons, or 16.6%.
For Russia, the forecast is 4.85 million tons, against 4.2 million tons the season before (+650 thousand tons, or 15.5%).
Despite the fact that Russia remains the largest producer of sunflower oil, Ukraine is ahead of it precisely in terms of exports:
Ukraine – 5.1 million tons, Russia – 4.85 million tons. The gap in favor of Ukraine in the new season may be about 250 thousand tons.
