Vyacheslav Kunev
These are the results of the forecast analysis conducted by Vyacheslav Kunev, an expert in the field of IT-technologies, based on the well-known “13 keys” method.
He explained that the method was developed by historian Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election from 1984 to 2020. The logic is as follows: it is not the rhetoric that decides the outcome – it is the structural conditions that decide. The method can be adapted to other spheres of human activity, geopolitics for sure.
At the same time, the expert noted that the factor of war in Ukraine remains the determining factor of Moldova’s future membership in the EU. In particular, the probability of joining the single European family by 2040 increases to 60-70% if two conditions are fulfilled simultaneously: Ukraine does not lose the war and Transnistria reintegrates or loses Russian cover.
If at least one of these conditions is not met, the ceiling of possible membership remains at 40%.
The use of such methods of forecasts does not mean that they are 100% correct and that this is how the situation will develop. But they have a right to life and provide solid food for thought.
