Global oil production rose by 2.4 million bpd in July—to 101.5 million bpd—but remained 6.3 million bpd below last year’s level. Meanwhile, production in the Persian Gulf remains at 8.3 million bpd.
However, the outlook has deteriorated due to the resumption of blockades in the Strait of Hormuz in July and early August. By 2027, according to the IEA’s forecast, global oil supplies will increase by 8.3 million b/d to 110.4 million b/d.
Refinery throughput continued to rise in July but remained nearly 5 million bpd below last year’s level, at 80.9 million bpd.
Ongoing disruptions to petroleum product exports from the Middle East and attacks on Russian refineries have reduced the projected refining volumes for the third quarter by an additional 370,000 bpd. The IEA expects global oil refining volumes to decline by 2.5 million bpd in 2026.
Global oil demand will decline by 1.6 million bpd in 2026, according to the IEA report. However, compared to the July report, the forecast has been revised upward by 510,000 bpd. At that time, the IEA had forecast a decline in demand of 1.047 million bpd.
