Critically low water levels in the Danube have limited normal loading operations and caused delays in cargo shipments. Meanwhile, the intensification of shelling on Odessa’s ports has led to an increase in the volume of cargo offered for transport via the Danube, according to Ekaterina Mudraya, a leading oilseed market analyst at ASAP Agri.
“The situation with barges on the Danube is more complicated than it seems at first glance. Water levels are at a historically low point and continue to drop daily, so the barges remain significantly underloaded. Therefore, indicative freight rates are extremely tentative, as the final cost depends on the available draft, the actual cargo volume, the vessel, and the cargo,” noted Taras Panasyuk, co-owner and head of the freight brokerage firm Atria Brokers.
ASAP Agri compared the cost of transportation by barge to Constanta with that by coastal vessels—coasters. The cost of transportation from the Danube to the Marmara Sea is $2/metric ton lower. This showed that the sharp rise in barge freight rates has significantly reduced their competitiveness.
A second key difference between this season and the 2022 and 2023 seasons is the increased risk of Russian attacks on barges. As a result, the number of available barges is limited. If an even greater number of Ukrainian exporters reroute their cargoes to the Danube, shipowners may need at least two weeks to redeploy additional barges.
Specific Navigation Challenges in the Romanian Section of the Danube
“Market participants confirm that the maximum available draft in Cernavoda (which is one of the most challenging sections of the Danube for navigation) is currently about 2 meters, although it may be even less further along the route to Constanța. Draft restrictions were similar during the same period last year, with the draft also falling below 2 meters in some sections. “According to rough estimates, barges are currently losing about 30–60% of their carrying capacity, depending on their design,” noted Pavel Lysenko, a freight analyst at ASAP Agri, speaking to latifundist.
Official data confirm a further deterioration in navigation conditions. According to the Romanian Lower Danube Administration, on July 22, the water level at the hydrological station in Cernavodă dropped by another 4 cm in a single day, and a further decrease of 5 cm is forecast for the coming days. According to Romania’s National Agency for Water Resources Management, the Danube’s flow rate at the Romanian border over the weekend was the lowest since 1996.
