After a first half of the year marked by stagnation, the interactive leading economic indicator from the NGO Expert-grup returned to growth territory in May–June 2026. The core signal, measured by a 3-month moving average, had risen by +0.14 standard deviations above the historical average as of July 23—moderate growth close to potential, but without acceleration.
What is fueling the recovery? The momentum comes from the real economy: industrial production accelerated to +8.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven by the manufacturing and energy sectors, complemented by robust retail sales growth (+11% in real terms) and a recovery in merchandise exports (+17% year-over-year).
What is holding back growth? A slight deterioration in the non-performing loan ratio—it rose to approximately 5.3% from about 4.1% a year earlier—and the persistent risk premium in the government bond market.
This indicator combines, with equal weighting, six metrics published by the NBS and the NBM: industrial production, retail trade, exports, M3 money supply, the non-performing loan ratio, and the spread between the yield on 364-day government securities and the NBM’s base rate.
The methodology is consistent with established practices of the OECD, the Conference Board, the European Commission, and the Bank of Italy, providing an assessment of the state of the economy approximately 1–2 quarters earlier than official GDP statistics.
