Anka Dragu, President of the National Bank
The central bank’s decision to tighten monetary policy was driven by the need to curb inflation. The move is due to the upward trajectory of inflation in 2026 and pressure from consumer demand amid supply shocks.
In June, annual inflation stood at 6.51%, approaching the upper limit of the NBM’s target range. The NBM’s current forecast confirms the regulator’s previous conclusions regarding increased inflationary pressure amid an expected adjustment of regulated prices in the third quarter of 2026, the energy situation, and conditions in global food markets.
Among the pro-inflationary risks in the medium term are: “uncertainty regarding agricultural production this year and the vulnerability of domestic fruit and vegetable prices, external financing and fiscal stimulus, the impact of new fiscal policy, and the reform of the public sector wage system.”
The central bank is thus following the lead of its European counterparts. Amid rising inflationary pressures, major central banks have revised their monetary policies. For example, the ECB raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points in June 2026. While this marks the ECB’s first rate hike since September 2023, it is the fourth for the NBM.
The annual inflation rate in 2026 will continue to rise, but will begin to decline starting in the first quarter of 2027, according to the National Bank’s forecast. In September, the regulator will revisit the issue of monetary policy depending on how the situation develops.
