The main conclusion of the conference discussions is that there has been a fundamental shift in the logic of the vegetable oil market. While the key issue over the past twenty years has been the volume of oilseed crops harvested, in recent years—and likely in the future as well—the question of “how much renewable energy will the market demand?” will be no less important.
In other words, competitiveness no longer depends solely on raw materials, but also on the depth and efficiency of processing, the technologies used, logistics routes, and demand for biofuels. And, overall, on the sustainable development of the agri-food sector. For farmers, this has a paradoxical practical implication: a large harvest does not necessarily lead to an automatic drop in prices, since an ever-increasing share of the demand for oilseeds and vegetable oils comes from the energy sector—specifically, biodiesel production programs.
“The most important signal for the Republic of Moldova is that international analysts have begun to include it in the category of major rapeseed suppliers to the European market, alongside Ukraine, Canada, and Australia,” Agroexpert quotes Yuri Rizu as saying. “The reason for the strengthening of its market position is a structural deficit: domestic production of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the European Union is growing, but it cannot keep up with the demand for industrial raw materials for biodiesel. Total rapeseed production in the European Union and the United Kingdom for the 2026/27 season is estimated at approximately 22 million metric tons—the largest harvest since 2020. At the same time, rapeseed imports into the European market are forecast at 5.9 million metric tons. Some estimates, including those from the USDA, are even higher—up to 6.6 million metric tons. At the same time, the use of rapeseed oil for biodiesel production in the upcoming season is expected to exceed 7 million metric tons (rapeseed already accounts for two-thirds of European biodiesel production). The entire Black Sea region, including Romania, the Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine, is poised to harvest one of the best rapeseed crops in recent years. This is both an opportunity and a challenge.”
Rapeseed Prices
Rapeseed price trends demonstrate structural support from the processing sector. As Yuri Riza notes, the price of rapeseed oil in Europe has risen by approximately 25% over the past year—from 1,000 euros/metric ton to nearly 1,300 euros/metric ton. A similar upward trend in prices has also been observed for sunflower and soybean oils.
At the same time, farmers must also consider the less pleasant side of the “equation”—production costs. Approximately 80–90% of the cost of producing ammonia is determined by the price of natural gas, so any disruptions in the energy market affect fertilizer prices and, ultimately, crop yields. And rapeseed is a crop that is quite demanding in terms of agricultural technology, particularly regarding the balance and adequacy of the plants’ nutrient regime.
Forecasts presented in Varna indicate that the global fertilizer price index could rise by approximately 31% in 2026, while the price of urea could increase by nearly 60%. At the same time, natural gas prices in Europe are expected to rise by 25% compared to the previous year’s level. This is precisely why the availability of nitrogen fertilizers, natural gas, and preferential loans for farmers is becoming yet another important indicator for the oilseed and oil market in the 2026–27 season.
Yuri Riza notes that vegetable oils and biofuels are now viewed as tools for energy security. The United States, Brazil, and Indonesia are implementing biodiesel production programs to reduce their dependence on imported fossil fuels. In the European Union, regulation remains a key factor: The Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) requires EU member states to achieve either 29% renewable energy use in transportation or a 14.5% reduction in emissions in this sector by 2030. Germany, the EU’s largest fuel consumer, is raising the limit on the use of agricultural raw materials in biofuels from 4.4% to 4.9% in 2026 and to 5.8% by 2030–2032. Added to this are mandatory requirements for aviation fuel, which will become stricter after 2030.
“The Turkish-Balkan Factor”
An increasingly important factor for Moldovan exporters is the growth of the Turkish processing industry, which has become an aggressive buyer of oilseeds supplied by Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, and Ukraine. Vegetable oil production in Turkey for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 2.3 million metric tons, of which about 1.1 million metric tons is sunflower oil. Meanwhile, Turkey’s total imports of oilseeds reached a record high of 4.45 million metric tons, with soybeans accounting for more than 70% of that volume.
Bulgaria also relies on imports, as its processing capacity approaches 5 million metric tons per year, which significantly exceeds domestic raw material production, amounting to only 1.8–2 million metric tons.
The conclusion is that the countries of the Black Sea basin no longer compete solely with one another but are part of a global market influenced not only by regional (Turkey) but also by global market leaders — China, India, South Africa, and the Americas.
“Overall, the message from Varna boils down to several principles that could serve as the basis for practical solutions in the near future. Vegetable oil prices have reached a higher structural threshold than in a typical commercial cycle—this reduces the likelihood of a significant, unexpected drop in prices. For Moldovan producers of rapeseed, sunflower, and soybeans, a favorable moment is now emerging: European demand for raw materials remains unmet, prices are on the rise, and “Moldova is recognized globally as a strategic supplier of oilseeds to Europe,” concluded Yuri Riza.
