The foundation’s experts have considered two scenarios of technology development in which artificial intelligence systems will be able to perform most of the cognitive and physical tasks instead of humans.
GDP growth does not guarantee welfare growth
In both scenarios, the global economy gets an additional impetus for growth due to increased labor productivity and automation of processes.
However, at the same time, the share of income accruing to workers declines, as much of the value created is concentrated with owners of capital and technology platforms.
IMF analysts estimate that artificial intelligence can significantly increase global production, but the distribution of the benefits may be highly uneven.
As a result, the total volume of the economy is growing, while the real incomes of a significant part of the population are either growing much slower or declining relative to the incomes of technology owners and investors.
Risks for the labor market
One key factor is emerging as AI’s ability to replace not only routine physical labor, but also many intellectual functions previously thought to be immune to automation.
We are talking about a wide range of professions – from administrative and analytical specialties to certain areas in finance, law, education and management.
Economists note that the consequences will depend on the speed of technology adoption, the adaptation of the education system, and the ability of states to create mechanisms for redistributing the benefits of technological progress.
New challenges for states
The study also points to the risk of further widening social inequalities. If the benefits from the introduction of artificial intelligence are concentrated in a limited number of companies and investors, governments may face the need to revise tax, social and educational policies.
This issue is particularly important for emerging economies, where automation could change employment patterns faster than the labor market can create new jobs.
For Russia and other countries with a high share of traditional industries, the development of AI offers opportunities to improve the efficiency of the economy, but it also creates risks of displacing some workers and widening the gap between productivity and income levels.
Thus, the IMF’s conclusion looks paradoxical: artificial intelligence can accelerate economic growth, but by itself does not guarantee an increase in the well-being of the majority of citizens.
On the contrary, without additional regulatory mechanisms, technological progress may exacerbate existing social and economic imbalances.
