Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced their longest period of outflows since their launch in early 2024. Although this coincided with a drop in the price of the leading cryptocurrency by more than 20%, experts cautioned that the market might misinterpret the outflows as a loss of institutional interest. However, there are virtually no positive views regarding the short-term prospects of the crypto market, writes RBC.
Since their launch in 2024, U.S. spot ETFs have become one of the main sources of institutional capital inflows into the crypto market. When investors buy shares in these funds, the management companies purchase the corresponding amount of Bitcoin to back them. This creates demand in the market. When shares are redeemed and capital flows out of the funds, the reverse process occurs—bitcoin from their collateral is sold, putting additional pressure on the market price.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. are experiencing a prolonged period of capital outflows. According to Galaxy Research, $6.35 billion has been withdrawn from these instruments over the past 30 trading days—the worst figure on record among all 582 tracked 30-day periods.
In the week ending June 18, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $227 million. This marks the sixth consecutive week of negative outflows—the longest streak of outflows since these products were launched. Over these six weeks, the cumulative capital outflow exceeded $5 billion.
The heaviest outflow occurred between May 15 and June 3, when there was a 13-day continuous series of redemptions—during which approximately $4.4 billion left the funds. However, over the past two weeks, the intensity of outflows has gradually decreased: while net outflows totaled $1.72 billion in the first week of June, they subsequently fell to $316 million and $227 million, respectively.
Over this six-week period, Bitcoin fell from approximately $82,000 in May to $64,000 by June 22, and at the beginning of the month, the price hit a new annual low of about $59,000. However, it is worth noting that the May peak ($82,000) was reached after nearly continuous growth of almost 25% since late March.
Ethereum ETFs are showing the same negative trend. Over the six-week period, total outflows exceeded $900 million. Meanwhile, the price of Ethereum (ETH) plummeted by nearly 30% during this period, to $1,750.
Why Investors Are Exiting Bitcoin ETFs
J. Jacobs, head of the iShares exchange-traded fund (ETF) division (part of BlackRock), cautioned against interpreting daily outflows as a clear sign of declining institutional demand.
“I think the market sometimes misinterprets the reasons behind the daily outflows we’re seeing—there could be a million reasons,” Jacobs said, referring to capital shifts from one exchange-traded product to another.
The expert also noted that outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in no way alter BlackRock’s positive view of the asset: “Thus, we see daily inflows and outflows across a wide range of assets, from large- and small-cap companies to Bitcoin, gold, and so on. This in no way changes our view of the asset or its utility.”
Bitcoin Price Forecasts
In the long term, experts are almost unanimous in their positive assessment of the Bitcoin price. However, when it comes to the short term, many analysts predict, if not a price drop, then at least a lack of significant growth.
Major market maker Wintermute warned in its weekly review that there are no positive trends in terms of market liquidity, suggesting that Bitcoin could fall to $50,000. Analysts also noted that retail investors have shifted to trading traditional assets: crypto traders have focused on stocks of AI companies, semiconductors, and oil. Experts pointed out that sustained positive capital inflows into the crypto market are necessary for growth.
Simon-Peter Massabney, head of business development at XS.com, believes that Bitcoin will remain within the $60,000–$67,000 price range in the near term. He described the market as “balanced between supportive and restraining forces.” In his view, the positive factors—a slowdown in capital outflows from ETFs and increased interest in risky assets—offset the negative factors related to macroeconomic concerns and a potential loss of institutional interest in Bitcoin.
During the week of June 15–21, experts also commented extensively on Bitcoin’s price rebounds and urged caution under current conditions, calling short-term rebounds “bull traps.”
