The current correction has lasted about three quarters, experts noted. Historically, major bear markets have lasted 12–15 months, with price declines from local highs ranging from 75% to 90%, according to forklog.com.
According to them, this trend indicates the maturity of the crypto market. However, it is still unclear whether the downturn has completely ended, Bernstein noted.
What Supports the Forecast
Bernstein believes that fundamental factors remain favorable for Bitcoin’s continued growth. One of these is capital inflows.
Since the beginning of 2026, the total inflow through corporate Bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs has amounted to approximately $10 billion.
At the same time, investors withdrew $5.5 billion from exchange-traded funds. However, given the funds’ total assets of $74 billion, Bernstein described this outflow as limited. Corporate buyers drove the positive net inflow.
Strategy remains the primary source of demand. Since January, the company has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), increasing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. According to Bernstein’s estimates, the company’s debt burden amounts to about 13% of the value of its Bitcoin portfolio, and its available liquidity is sufficient to service interest payments and dividends for more than 17 months.
Analysts also noted that Strategy retains the ability to sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to finance dividends, interest payments, and share buybacks.
At the same time, the company’s purchases in 2026 offset sales by public mining companies, some of which reallocated capital to AI infrastructure and data centers.
Changes in U.S. regulation could provide additional support to the market. Bernstein pointed to:
– the advancement of the GENIUS Act, a bill regarding stablecoins;
– the launch of perpetual cryptocurrency futures through Kalshi and Coinbase;
– the growth of the RWA market, which has reached approximately $52 billion.
The company estimates the probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 at approximately 50%.
