IMF Spokesperson Julie Kozak said Thursday that in the next update to its “World Economic Outlook” report, expected on July 8, the Fund will decide whether to continue using the three growth scenarios presented in April, which depend on the outcome of the war with Iran.
As the Strait of Hormuz remained closed in May, keeping benchmark oil prices above $100 per barrel, Kozak stated that the global economy is shifting from a more favorable “base case” scenario—which assumed a swift end to the conflict—to an “adverse scenario” with global growth of 2.5% in 2026.
The Fund is most concerned about developing countries (especially in Africa), which are net energy importers and have minimal fiscal reserves.
Due to logistical constraints and the time required to transport raw materials to their final destinations, it will take several weeks or months before supply chains fully stabilize.
However, key macroeconomic indicators do not cause concern for the IMF. Thanks to earlier interest rate hikes by central banks, global inflation expectations remain within acceptable limits.
While global inflation expectations remain stable at present, financial conditions are accommodative for most developed and developing countries. A detailed analysis of the situation has been published in a Reuters news feed.
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