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According to Opta statistics published by *Sport-Express*, the reigning European champions have a 25% chance of reaching the final, while the French national team has a 21% chance. France remains one of the most consistent teams in recent years, having reached the World Cup final twice in a row and winning the tournament in 2018.
England and Argentina are also among the main contenders. England’s chances of reaching the final are estimated at 18.5%, and their chances of winning the title at 11%. For the reigning world champions, Argentina, these figures are 18% and 10%, respectively. Portugal and Brazil round out the top five favorites.
Among the second-tier teams, Opta highlights Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway, although their probability of reaching the final does not exceed 11%.
Analysts consider Cape Verde to be the most unexpected potential winner of the tournament. The World Cup debutant has only a 0.01% chance of winning the title. At the same time, the supercomputer gives no chance of victory to the national teams of Haiti and Curaçao.
The projections for the only team from the post-Soviet space—Uzbekistan, which will be playing in the World Cup for the first time—are also interesting. The team’s probability of advancing to the knockout stage is 40%, and its chances of winning the championship are 0.06%.
The 2026 World Cup kicks off on June 11 with a match between Mexico and South Africa.
Here is Opta’s list of the top 10 favorites for the tournament: (data from Sport-Express)
