What Armenians choose
These are elections to the National Assembly of Armenia, a unicameral parliament consisting of a minimum of 101 deputies (the last parliament had 107 deputies, the previous one had 132). It is the parliament that forms the government and elects the Prime Minister, who is the de facto leader of the country. Elections are held under a proportional system based on party lists.
About 2.48 million citizens have the right to vote. Polling stations opened at 08:00 and will work until 20:00 Yerevan time. After the polling stations close, vote counting will begin, and the first preliminary results are expected late in the evening of June 7.
Nikol Pashinyan is the main favorite
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Pact party remains the main contender to retain power.
According to the latest polls, Pashinyan’s party can count on about 30-32% of the vote and remains the country’s largest political force, Reuters notes. However, this result may not be enough to form a one-party government, making coalition talks likely.
Pashinyan came to power after the 2018 Velvet Revolution. His current campaign is built around the idea of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, opening regional communications and further rapprochement with the European Union and the United States.
Who is challenging the current government
The main rival of the ruling party is considered to be the Strong Armenia bloc, linked to Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan. Sociological surveys give this political force 6% to 11% support.
The opposition criticizes Pashinyan for Armenia’s defeat in the Karabakh conflict and believes that the prime minister has made excessive concessions to Azerbaijan, Reuters writes. The campaign is also centered on the issue of relations with Russia, which has traditionally been considered Armenia’s main ally in the South Caucasus.
Additional tensions have been created by the arrests of a number of opposition figures on the eve of the vote. The authorities say they are investigating possible offenses, while the opposition speaks of political pressure.
Referendum on the future
Many analysts call the current vote a referendum on the future direction of Armenia’s development. The country is reeling from the consequences of losing control over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 while trying to build a new system of security and foreign policy relations, Reuters points out.
Pashinyan’s victory could strengthen the course of rapprochement with the EU and the U.S., as well as accelerate the implementation of peace agreements with Azerbaijan. The strengthening of the pro-Russian opposition, on the contrary, could lead to a revision of some of the foreign policy initiatives of recent years.
These elections have significance for the South Caucasus far beyond Armenia itself. Their outcome will largely determine the future configuration of relations between Yerevan, Moscow, Brussels, Washington, Baku and Ankara.
