The current correction is due to the changed situation on the grain market. In May, external supplies of Russian wheat were below high export expectations, states Andrey Sizov, director of Sovecon. He explains that in the short term the conditions of foreign supplies became less favorable. In particular, the volume of purchases by Egypt, the largest importer of Russian wheat, decreased.
Dmitry Rylko, General Director of the Institute of Agricultural Market Conjuncture (ICAR), says that in June wheat exports abroad may amount to 2.5 million tons, having decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, while from March to May the value steadily exceeded last year’s supply volumes.
ICAR keeps the total forecast of wheat exports for the whole year at the level of 47 million tons. The estimate of Rusagrotrans analytical center is 46.5 million tons.
The sharp growth of Russian wheat exports in early 2026 was shaped by the demand of major importers: in March, they increased purchases due to fears associated with the military confrontation that began in the Middle East. Market analysts believe that demand will be weak until the end of summer. This is coupled with the strengthening of the ruble, which itself makes exports less marginal.
