Photo © Mazur / cbcew.org.uk
As “European Pravda” writes, this is stated in the results of the study of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
One of the scenarios of the study simulates a scenario in which Russia retains de facto control over the temporarily occupied territories, the level of investment in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian government remains at a medium or high level, and the temporary protection status for Ukrainian refugees in the EU is terminated in March 2027.
In such a case, it is projected that 2.9 million Ukrainian refugees (56% of their current number) will remain in Europe at least until 2029.
Under the second scenario – “status quo”, i.e. continuation of Russian aggression – 5.16 million refugees from Ukraine (99% of their current number) will be in Europe by the end of 2029.
Under the third scenario, which assumes Ukraine’s victory with the return of its occupied territories by the end of this year, the number of refugees may decrease to 32%.
UNHCR clarified that these scenarios are not predictive, but the study demonstrated how behavior may change in response to various likely future events, based on a range of data, in particular surveys.
