Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen
Mélenchon, the candidate for the far-left party “Unbowed France” (LFI), is projected to advance to the second round in at least three of the five scenarios analyzed, and in the fourth scenario, he ties for second place. Le Pen is expected to easily defeat him in the second round.
The poll results give centrist candidates in the April 18, 2027, French election food for thought as they struggle to win over an increasingly polarized electorate, Reuters notes.
“The risk that Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Mélenchon will face off in the second round is real and serious,” centrist candidate Édouard Philippe told reporters on Monday.
EU Enlargement: Between “Not Quite” and “Never”
Currently, the Republic of Moldova enjoys excellent relations with France, which has always supported Chisinau’s European path whenever possible. In 2025, the year of the Moldovan elections, President Emmanuel Macron spoke at the Great National Assemblies Square (PMAN) alongside the leaders of Poland and Germany to express support for the pro-European course and for Maia Sandu.
If, instead of Macron, the leftist Mélenchon or the ultra-nationalist Le Pen comes to power in Paris next year, it will mean a France led by a president who opposes the EU.
Le Pen dislikes the EU because, like other “sovereignists” in member states, she considers it dictatorial and stifling for the peoples it unites.
Mélenchon hates the EU because he considers the Union a symbol of neoliberalism, which he blames for social inequality and environmental destruction. While during his unsuccessful bid in 2017 he campaigned on the slogan of France’s exit from the EU, he now proposes “ignoring EU treaties.”
A victory for extremists in France, the EU’s second-largest economy, could send shockwaves throughout the 27-nation bloc, including its enlargement policy.
In this regard, Mélenchon advocates for a “zero option” under current conditions: “We will oppose any new accessions until criteria for social harmonization are established,” even if they are “good friends,” Mélenchon said in comments published by Euractiv.
Le Pen’s party, the National Rally (RM), also rules out any new EU expansion in its platform, citing, in particular, the danger of low-cost competition for French companies and workers, as well as security risks.
This is especially true when it comes to problematic countries such as Moldova (with Transnistria) or Ukraine (with all the accompanying factors).
Further EU expansion must be approved by France via a referendum or by a three-fifths majority in parliament. With an extremist in the Élysée Palace, neither of these options seems likely.
