This scenario assumes that manufacturers outside the EU will be unable to adapt to the new rules. The European Commission is proposing to effectively reduce the permissible residues of a number of the most hazardous active substances—whose use is banned in the EU—to technical zero. This means that suppliers will have to stop using them if they want to maintain access to the European market.
The result could be not only higher prices for certain products but also a significant reduction in trade flows. In the worst-case scenario, the JRC estimates a potential 41% drop in EU agricultural imports. Researchers have identified 18 active substances that could potentially fall under the new restrictions, affecting 235 product lines supplied from 86 countries. Even under more realistic scenarios, in which some foreign producers adapt to the requirements, a decline in imports and a rise in prices are expected.
“Mirror Standards”
European farmers support the introduction of so-called “mirror requirements,” emphasizing that imported products must meet the same standards as those produced in the EU. At the same time, suppliers from third countries view this approach as a trade barrier, since growing conditions, climate, and common pests vary significantly from region to region. Agricultural organizations in Canada, Brazil, the United States, South Africa, Morocco, and other countries have already expressed concern about the new rules, according to Politico.
The European Commission has not yet finalized the list of pesticides subject to zero-residue limits and plans to review each substance individually, taking into account potential consequences. Australia, Canada, Paraguay, and the United States have already raised the issue of the European initiative at the WTO level. Officials in Brussels state that they will take into account both the EU’s food security and the potential implications for international trade when making decisions.
