Ursula von der Leyen
The EU enlargement process is experiencing a unique, once-in-a-generation moment: several “front-runners” are nearing the finish line, Ukraine and Moldova are taking their first clear steps to break free from Moscow’s orbit, and Iceland is considering whether to resume accession talks.
There hasn’t been such a favorable situation in many years: EU officials emphasize that more negotiation chapters have been closed in the last six months than in the previous decade.
But as the prospect of an expanded union takes on more tangible form, EU institutions and member states are increasingly confronted with a number of political and strategic issues that will come to the fore if the next wave of enlargement begins, Euronews notes.
Geographical Balance
Geographical balance remains one of the key factors to consider when expanding the Union, especially in light of the “big bang” of 2004. At that time, 10 Central and Eastern European countries joined the EU at once, and in many Western European capitals, there was a sense that the center of gravity had shifted too far east.
The current frontrunners—Montenegro and Albania—will not alter this balance due to their modest sizes. However, as they approach the finish line, a more complex question is becoming increasingly pressing: what to do with the largest country in the Western Balkans, Serbia, which remains a source of serious disagreement among member states.
The so-called “Friends of the Western Balkans” are questioning the geopolitical calculations that determine the approach to Belgrade’s application for membership. They warn that the principle of merit-based assessment is not applied equally to candidate countries.
Serbia, Iceland, or Ukraine
As pressure mounts to open new negotiation clusters with Ukraine and Moldova by the end of the year, calls to maintain a geographical balance will inevitably grow louder and may result in Ukraine’s progress toward membership becoming dependent on Serbia.
Iceland could prove to be an unexpected and highly welcome factor in restoring economic balance within the bloc: the wealthy Nordic country is holding a referendum—voting for which will continue through August 29—on whether to resume negotiations on EU accession.
Ukraine, meanwhile, remains the “elephant in the room.” European capitals are well aware that some form of EU membership or security guarantees will inevitably have to be part of any future peace agreement with Moscow.
Despite its relatively modest economy, Kyiv’s territory, population, and military potential will make it an influential member state, especially in matters of defense and foreign policy, which will force Brussels to think more broadly about how an expanded union will function.
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