According to estimates by the authors of a study published by Triodos Bank, against the backdrop of expected economic growth in the EU of approximately 1.1%, these losses will lead to stagnation.
Consequences in Four Areas
The bank identifies impacts across four areas, three of which are assessed as average across the EU.
Declines in crop yields and dairy production, as well as the resulting rise in food prices, account for about 0.15% of GDP.
Restrictions on electricity generation at nuclear, hydroelectric, and thermal power plants, reduced efficiency of solar power generation, and rising wholesale electricity prices account for an additional 0.12–0.15% of GDP, while disruptions to rail, road, and river transport—add another 0.15%.
The greatest—and at the same time the most difficult to quantify—impact is related to labor productivity.
Worker productivity begins to decline as soon as the temperature exceeds 25–30 °C. The most significant losses are observed in outdoor work and during heavy physical labor. Office work is also affected, in part because the heat impairs sleep quality and cognitive function.
France tops the ranking
The data presented does not constitute a ranking of the hottest countries. Triodos, cited by Euronews, evaluates each economy based on the share of production in vulnerable sectors, commute time, the prevalence of air conditioning, and the level of adaptation, and then multiplies these indicators by the number of abnormally hot days recorded this year.
France is the hardest hit: according to the bank’s estimates, the country is losing 1.4 percentage points of growth, pushing its economy toward a contraction of approximately 0.6% against an already weak backdrop.
The Netherlands loses about 0.8 percentage points, which virtually wipes out its growth. Spain and Italy have the most vulnerable employment structures and the highest number of hot days, but decades of adaptation mitigate the impact of each individual heat wave.
Poland, where air conditioning is underdeveloped and the population is poorly adapted to heat, would be extremely vulnerable, but this summer’s weather there was relatively cool, and the economy is still expected to grow by about 2.9%.
Costs Not Reflected in GDP
Human losses remain largely outside the scope of these calculations.
It is estimated that during the June heat wave alone, 20,400 heat-related deaths occurred in France, Germany, Spain, and Italy.
As of last week, wildfires across the EU had burned more than 490,000 hectares, compared with an average of 197,000 hectares over the past 20 years, according to data from the European Forest Fire Information System, with France recording record-breaking areas of fire.
The loss of ecosystem services in the burned areas could add between 100 million and 4.6 billion euros to the damage.
