In percentage terms, the increase over the past 24 hours was approximately 3.6%. Compared to July 14, when the price of gas was 52.94 euros/MWh, the price has risen by 8.86 euros/MWh, representing an increase of approximately 16.7%.
This trend is primarily driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East and concerns about the security of key energy transport routes. Threats of restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the emergence of a second critical point in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait area, are intensifying pressure on international energy markets.
At the same time, liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply volumes to Northwestern Europe have fallen to approximately 93.9 million m³/day, which is nearly 25% below the 30-day average of about 125 million m³/day. Additional pressure is also coming from a temporary reduction in supplies from Norway, where approximately 19.4 million m³/day of production is unavailable due to maintenance work and unplanned outages.
The market is also being affected by a slowdown in the rate of gas storage filling—the shortfall is about 52 million m³ compared to the seasonal average over the past five years—as well as problems in the French nuclear sector. Reduced output at several reactors is increasing the need for electricity generation at gas-fired power plants.
In addition, prices for the coming months remain high, exceeding 61 euros/MWh for deliveries in August–October 2026 and falling slightly toward the end of the year, to approximately 60.3 euros/MWh in December.
And what about Moldova?
On July 22, the National Energy Regulatory Agency (NARE) published a draft decision on a new natural gas tariff. The agency proposes raising the tariff by 5.88 lei per cubic meter compared to the current rate.
According to the draft, ANRE proposes setting the tariff at 18.7 lei per cubic meter, excluding VAT. Including VAT, the final price could amount to 20.30 lei per cubic meter.
However, given that the state-owned company Energocom has only just begun purchasing natural gas for the upcoming gas year, this increase may not be the last one in the upcoming heating season—if similar price trends for natural gas continue.
