Photo: SpaceX
Despite a wide range of forecasts, analysts agree on one thing: the key factor in the company’s future value will not be the space business itself, but SpaceX’s ability to transform Starship, Starlink, and its AI infrastructure into a unified commercial platform, according to Barron’s.
Analysts disagree on the numbers, but not on the main idea
The publication compiled the initial estimates from leading investment firms following the start of analytical coverage of the company.
The average price target is around $240 per share, which corresponds to a market capitalization of approximately $3.2 trillion. However, some analysts are considering significantly more ambitious scenarios.
For example, Citi anticipates the stock price could rise to $900 if the Starship program is successfully implemented, which would correspond to a market capitalization of nearly $12 trillion. Morgan Stanley estimates an optimistic scenario at $600 per share, while Cantor Fitzgerald puts it at $740, according to Barron’s.
Starship Is Becoming the Main Driver of Valuation
Virtually all analysts link the company’s future value to the development of the fully reusable Starship rocket.
In their view, if SpaceX can significantly reduce the cost of launching cargo into orbit, the company will be able to scale up several business lines at once—Starlink satellite internet, commercial space transportation, government contracts, and new services related to data processing and artificial intelligence.
At the same time, many forecasts assume that commercial operation of Starship will begin in the coming years.
Investors are betting on a future that doesn’t yet exist
Despite the optimism, analysts acknowledge that such high valuations are based primarily on expectations.
According to Barron’s, SpaceX has not yet demonstrated consistent profitability and is not expected to do so until 2027. A significant portion of the company’s value is tied to technologies and markets that are still in their infancy.
As a result, the range of valuations remains exceptionally wide—from conservative scenarios of around $100 per share to the most optimistic forecasts exceeding $900.
SpaceX’s history illustrates a shift in Wall Street’s approach to valuing technology companies. Investors are increasingly viewing such companies not as individual producers of goods or services, but as platforms that bring together several rapidly growing markets at once—space, satellite communications, artificial intelligence, computing infrastructure, and government technology.
