Moldova’s economic growth is expected to be restrained (about 1.9%), while the medium-term growth of the state debt will be caused by the continued external financing of investment projects and budgetary needs. The forecast of experts from the local office of the World Bank Group was presented today within a special meeting.
Prices are expected to remain high due to external shocks, but inflation is expected to gradually decline in the medium term. The fiscal deficit is projected to be above 4 percent of GDP in the medium term. Similar adjustments to the economic situation in the country are also reflected in the analytical materials of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Current state of external debt
External public debt totaled $4.962 billion in April 2026 compared to $4.902 billion in March. The $60 million increase in debt, economist Volodymyr Golovatyuk observed, “occurred despite the fact that the government received only $9 million in April, and repaid $20 million in earlier loans.”
“The fact is that due to the depreciation of the US dollar against the Euro, the dollar equivalent of the debt increased by $70 million. In contrast, the external public debt expressed in MDL decreased by $800 million. In April 2026, it amounted to 85.7 billion MDL against 86.5 billion in March. It turns out that the external debt in dollars increased, while in MDL it decreased. This is due to the fact that in April the exchange rate of the US dollar to MDL decreased,” says Vladimir Golovatyuk, citing the comparative growth in recent years.
In April 2021, the external state debt amounted to 40.5 billion MDL, in April 2025. – 74.9 billion MDL, April 2026 it amounted to 85.7 billion MDL.
Total public debt – within the allowed limit
The growth of public debt in nominal terms (in lei) reflects the process of attracting new external and domestic loans to cover the budget deficit and support the country’s economy.
As of the end of 2025, the total public debt (internal and external) exceeded 132 billion lei, but its share in the economy amounted, according to different estimates, to about 37.6-39.2% of GDP and is within the safe limits set by the state.
A significant part of the state debt is denominated in foreign currency (euros, dollars). The nominal size of the debt in lei is significantly affected by the exchange rate difference during revaluation.
Experts are concerned not so much about the scale of the public debt growth caused by the need for large-scale investments in infrastructure, energy security, and social support measures in the context of macroeconomic challenges, but rather about the budget’s capacity to service it without compromising development.
