Bitcoin investors are experiencing a period of calm: traders expect the lowest level of volatility in the price of the first cryptocurrency since the summer of 2025. At the same time, there are record outflows from bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are trading 40% below their historical peak. Equity indices of the largest companies in the U.S. and Asia are breaking records while retail investors are pulling out of the crypto market, RBC writes.
On May 27, the price of bitcoin (BTC) is at $75.858 thousand per coin. Since late March, the BTC rate has been growing almost without correction from the $65 thousand mark and by early May temporarily reached the level of $83 thousand. The current price level is almost 40% below the historical peak in October 2025 around $126.2 thousand.
It is the fact that bitcoin volatility is approaching historic lows that explains the outflow of retail investors from the crypto market, experts believe. As stated by Caroline Moron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a company specializing in cryptocurrency options, they are leaving to look for trading opportunities in other markets.
The Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index fell to 36.11 points in trading on May 26, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This is the lowest value in the last nine months and also close to the record low levels seen in 2023.
Implied Volatility is the market’s estimate of how much the price of an underlying asset, such as a stock or cryptocurrency, will change in the future. It does not reflect actual data based on the past, but rather investors’ expectations. The index is calculated based on derivatives, such as options, through mathematical models and shows the current market consensus on future risks. The option index cited by Bloomberg reflects the 30-day expectations of traders based on actual options trades.
Why the bitcoin rate is not rising
The main mystery of the current bitcoin price dynamics is the divergence of the BTC exchange rate movement and traditional “risky” assets such as stocks. As Bloomberg pointed out, while global markets are rising amid expectations of the imminent end of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the ongoing boom in the artificial intelligence sector, bitcoin does not follow the general market trend. For example, the U.S. stock indices S&P500 and NASDAQ100 are less than 1% away from all-time highs, while South Korean and Taiwanese stock exchange indices are updating records.
The reason for this imbalance, according to experts cited by Bloomberg, is a shift in speculators’ priorities and, as a result, a capital overflow into shares of chip makers and AI-related companies. As a result, there is less “hot money” in cryptocurrency.
This is confirmed by the outflow of capital from bitcoin-ETFs, where net outflows since May totaled about $1 billion, breaking a two-month streak of capital inflows, which contrasts particularly with the general positivity in stock markets, as well as the fact that bitcoin is usually considered to be exactly among “risky” assets such as stocks, due to its historically high price correlation with them.
On the other hand, analysts believe that the low volatility is not only a consequence of the lack of interest in bitcoin, but also the result of a certain investment strategy. And as soon as the bitcoin rate tries to start growing, market participants immediately use it to “sell volatility” (sell volatility).
Holding bitcoin itself does not bring its holders any return, as it can be in bonds. Experts cited by Bloomberg point out that miners, investors and large funds use derivatives to capitalize on market volatility and expectations: growth prompts big players to sell options that effectively insure their positions against sharp movements while earning a premium. And to hedge their risks, they keep the price in a narrow band, which causes the volatility index to fall.
This strategy is quite popular in the crypto market, and a similar way of earning is used by major holders of the main cryptocurrency. For example, Japanese investment company Metaplanet earned about $58 million in the first quarter thanks to income from options on the first cryptocurrency. The same strategy is used by video game retail chain GameStop (GME), which pledges its bitcoins on the options market through the Coinbase crypto exchange credit service.
