According to the European Commission’s latest forecast, one of the key reasons for the decline in commercial pork supply will be the decline in breeding pig numbers, as recorded in several EU member states during recent herd censuses. This is expected to lead to a reduction in slaughter volumes, emeat reports, citing a report from the European Commission.
At the same time, the level of self-sufficiency of the EU in pork will remain stable at about 115%. Thus, the EU will remain a net exporter of pork products, although a significant part of exports will still be by-products and by-products not demanded on the domestic market.
Exports will continue to decline due to the effects of ASF in Spain
The European Commission estimates that EU pork exports from the EU will fall by a further 3.0% in 2026.
The main factor remains the change in the foreign trade situation following the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain at the end of November 2025. Following the detection of the disease, many third countries imposed restrictions on imports of Spanish pork.
Later, regionalization agreements partially resumed supplies to some countries. Nevertheless, the pattern of trade flows has already changed, with significant volumes of Spanish products remaining within the EU, increasing pressure on the domestic market.
Against this background, pork prices are currently well below their 2025 level.
EU pork consumption is set to fall again
The European Commission also predicts a reduction in pork consumption in the EU.
After a long downward trend, per capita consumption stabilized in the previous two years and even increased by 3.4% in 2025. In 2026, however, analysts again expect a decline.
According to the forecast, the average per capita consumption of pork in the EU will decrease by 0.9% to 32.6 kg per person. In the long term, this figure will be about 2 kg, or 5.7%, below the level of twenty years ago.
