Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen from Finland perform the song "Liekinheitin" (AP Photo/Martin Meissner)
The reason for the stability of such bets is a rare combination of factors for Eurovision: a strong live number by the Finns, a high assessment by the jury and a confident support of the audience after the semi-final.
Australia is the main pursuer of the Finns
According to EurovisionCentral, the main breakthrough of the last days was made by Australia. After a brilliant semi-final, its representative has moved up to the second line of bookmaker forecasts, and the probability of victory is estimated at about 15-16%.
Australia is now seen as the only country capable of putting up a real fight against the leader, especially in case of a strong jury-vote.
It is followed by a group of several countries that change places in different models: Greece, France, Denmark and Israel. Their chances are noticeably lower, but they remain in the zone of potential “breakthrough” if the final unfolds unpredictably.
Moldova is not among the bookmakers’ favorites
Moldova is represented at the contest by Satoshi with the song “Viva, Moldova!”. According to aggregate bookmaker estimates (EurovisionOdds.org), the country ranks only 26th in the overall ranking with a probability of victory of about 1%.
But at the same time, analysts note an increase in interest after the semifinals. The discussion of the number in social networks and the fan community has increased significantly, and Moldova itself is among the countries that can add to the audience voting.
The stakes change after the live performances
Experts note that in 2026 bookmakers’ forecasts change especially quickly after each semi-final. The scores are influenced not only by the songs, but also by the quality of the live performance and the audience’s reaction on social media.
For Moldova, an additional factor was the recognition of Satoshi himself on the regional market and the energetic stage presentation of the song. On Reddit and specialized forums, many users called the Moldovan number one of the “dark horses” of the contest.
At the same time, analysts remind that audience support does not always guarantee high final scores for the jury. In the history of Eurovision, there have repeatedly been discrepancies between televoting and professional voting.
