Global energy inflation will be delayed for a longer period of time due to the conflict in the Middle East and supply disruptions. Experts forecast that high oil and gas prices will act as a driver of overall price growth and stagflationary processes until at least the end of 2027.
This was reported by the representative of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) Austan Goolsby, who said that Asia is facing a serious stagflationary shock, which is reminiscent of the situation in the 1970s, and the rise in energy prices has dragged on longer than expected. Despite the recent decline, oil prices remain well above levels that were before the US/Israeli attack on Iran.
Goolsbee says regulators should keep a close eye on signs that AI-related stock market growth could cause broader inflationary pressures.
“I want people to pay attention to the following questions: have you seen a significant increase in consumer spending driven by wealth in the stock market? Have you noticed that investments in data centers are driving up energy costs for builders and having a short-term impact on inflation in the U.S.?” he added, expressing concern that financial markets may be outpacing the real economic benefits of AI adoption and overheating the economy.
Such dynamics could affect all economies over time, as new technologies rarely remain concentrated in just one country.
Inflation forecast
The World Bank expects energy prices to rise by 24%, pushing overall inflation in developing countries to 5.8%. In the European Union, rising energy prices will accelerate inflation to 3.1%, in Moldova – to 7.2% by the end of the year. The main drivers are high domestic energy costs and the rise in the cost of fertilizers for the agricultural sector. In 2027, the bank forecasts the indicator at 5.5%.
IMF experts worsened expectations for inflation in Moldova, forecasting average annual inflation in Moldova at 8.1% in 2026 (with a slowdown to 5.5% in 2027).
The National Bank officially raised its annual inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 8.6% (annual average of 7.0%). The return to target rates will start only from the second quarter of 2027.
