Moldova has traditionally imported significantly more goods and services than it has exported. And capital is fleeing Moldova “at breakneck speed.” Not even a slight reduction in the balance of payments deficit in the first quarter of 2026 could brighten the NBM’s report on the state of affairs.
Moldova’s external debt exceeds 10.5 billion euros, accounting for about 58% of GDP, amid persistent deep current account and trade deficits. The debt burden has increased by 1.9 percentage points.
The assertion that Moldova “owes the world more than it has” reflects a chronic balance of payments deficit: for many years, the country has imported significantly more goods than it has exported, offsetting this difference through external loans, credits, and financial aid.
Despite the alarming wording, the Moldovan economy has avoided default thanks to remittances, which partially offset the country’s foreign currency shortage, and ongoing refinancing from Western partners.
External public debt hovers around $4.96 billion. According to forecasts, total public debt (domestic and external) could approach the total value of the country’s entire public assets by the end of the year.
The current account deficit has narrowed but remains high
The main source of the deficit is a severe foreign trade imbalance. Moldova imports energy resources, automobiles, and consumer goods in volumes that significantly exceed its export revenues (primarily from agricultural products).
However, in the first quarter of 2026, this figure decreased by 8% ($79 million) compared to the same period last year, amounting to $944 million versus $1.023 billion a year earlier. Nevertheless, it remains consistently negative.
“This is due to the fact that foreign currency inflows into the country from exports of goods and services, as well as from income received from non-residents, grew more than its outflow from imports and income paid to non-residents —$401 million versus $322 million,” writes economist Vladimir Golovatyuk. “It is important to note that the increase in export revenues accounted for 87% of the total growth in foreign currency inflows.”
Another issue is that this growth is driven primarily by the agricultural sector. A year ago, the picture was completely different:
exports of goods declined significantly, and this was not offset by growth in exports of services or income. As a result, the current account deficit in 2025 increased 2.3-fold, the expert notes.
Despite some improvement, the current account deficit in Q1 2026 was more than 2.3 times higher than its average for the corresponding periods of 2020–2024. Its level relative to GDP remains enormous—20.9% of GDP—which indicates persistent risks of financial and economic instability, according to Vladimir Golovatyuk
Reduction in Support for the Real Sector
According to the NBM, the capital account balance in the first quarter amounted to 7.2 million euros, down 17.1% compared to the same period in 2025. The decline resulted from a 24% increase in capital outflows, which totaled 15.5 million euros, and a 7.2% increase in capital inflows, which totaled 22.7 million euros.
Capital inflows into the public sector increased by 33.6% to 5.8 million euros, while those into the private sector rose by only 0.1% to 16.8 million euros.
These figures indicate a decline in the net inflow of investments and long-term funds into Moldova’s economy to finance capital infrastructure projects and real estate. The country still receives more capital transfers from abroad than it sends out. But this surplus is rapidly shrinking…
Since the inflow of “net” funds for capital investments in Moldova has declined, experts believe we are witnessing a capital flight from the country. The accelerating outflow, which is not offset by investment inflows, speaks volumes. First and foremost, it means that the money entering the economy is not being put to work.
The sharp increase in capital outflow (by 24%), which reached 15.5 million euros and worsened the balance of payments, points to one of the most troubling trends: foreign investors and Moldovan citizens have become more active in transferring funds abroad on a non-repayable basis (selling assets and transferring money to other jurisdictions). Or—which is also a plausible explanation—expenses related to the transfer of non-productive assets abroad have increased.
In any case, the rate at which money was leaving the country (+24%) was three times higher than the rate at which it was entering (+7.2%). As a result, the net balance decreased.
This suggests that the country cannot offset its massive foreign trade deficit through capital grants or non-repayable investments. And the main burden of covering the deficit falls on the financial side—that is, on attracting new commercial loans, borrowing, and accumulating public debt.
“Settle the accounts” before it’s too late
In the context of the balance of payments for the first quarter of 2026, the situation with foreign direct investment (FDI) also reflects a general alarming trend: the inflow of long-term capital into the real sector of the economy is slowing, while the withdrawal of previously invested funds is increasing.
“Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the first quarter of 2026 fell by nearly a quarter—from $163 million to $123 million. At the same time, FDI outflows rose from $36 million to $48 million. This means that the net inflow of FDI amounted to $75 million, compared to $127 million a year earlier,” Vladimir Golovatyuk calculated.
Moreover, FDI inflows declined across all components: equity investments fell by 41%, reinvested earnings by 28%, and debt instruments (typically from parent companies) by 11%.
“Not only did equity investments decline, but their share of total FDI amounted to just 7%—$9 million out of $123 million. For the country as a whole, this is, to put it mildly, NOTHING!” the expert noted.
Foreign businesses have become more cautious about long-term investments in Moldovan enterprises. And they’ve been doing so for quite some time. The bulk of recorded investments consists not of new companies entering the market or the construction of production facilities “from scratch,” but rather of reinvested profits into existing businesses.
At the same time, there has been an increase in the withdrawal of equity capital and the early repayment of intercompany loans—when Moldovan subsidiaries repay loans to their foreign parent companies. This correlates directly with the increase in capital outflows mentioned in the capital account.
Moldova’s International Investment Position
Moldova’s international investment position (IIP) is characterized by a negative balance, and the volume of capital investments this year has declined by 2.4%. This is due to the fact that external liabilities (loans and investments) exceed the country’s financial assets.
At the beginning of the year, capital investments fell to 6.2 billion lei, of which investments in long-term tangible assets decreased by 1.5%. In the updated Global Investment Risk and Sustainability Index, Moldova ranks 101st. At the same time, the country is actively attracting targeted international financing.
According to the NBM, external debt as of March 31, 2026, stood at -6,619.4 million euros, and the ratio of net external debt to GDP was -36.5%, down 1.6 percentage points (pp) compared to the end of 2025.
The external financial assets position stood at 7,327.3 million euros, up 5.2% compared to the end of 2025, while the external liabilities position stood at 13,946.7 million euros, up 0.8%. The ratio of external assets to liabilities stood at 52.5% (+2.2 percentage points compared to December 31, 2025), according to the regulator.
Moldova’s gross external debt as of the end of March 2026 amounted to 10,520.6 million euros (+4.1% compared to December 31, 2025), which represents 58% of GDP (+1.9 percentage points compared to December 31, 2025).
Public external debt accounted for 43.2% of total external debt and reached 4,545.1 million euros (+5.4% compared to the end of 2025). Private external debt accounted for 56.8% of the total and reached 5,975.5 million euros, an increase of 3% compared to the end of 2025.
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