In its June “Global Economic Prospects” report, the World Bank lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 from 2.6% to 2.5%. Analysts note that this will be the weakest global GDP growth rate since the COVID-19 pandemic.
GDP growth is expected to recover to 2.8% by 2027–2028, however, this level will still remain below the average for the 2010s due to an aging population, falling investment, and high debt burdens in many countries.
The baseline forecast assumes an average price of $96 per barrel for Brent crude (36% higher than in 2025). In a negative scenario, the price could surge to $115.
Inflation is expected to accelerate to 4% under the baseline scenario and to 4.4% in the event of a protracted conflict. Experts have downgraded forecasts for two-thirds of the world’s countries. The most significant downward revisions were made for the UAE, Iraq, and other Middle Eastern countries.
The engines of growth, however, will remain. South Asia will remain the main driver, although growth there will slow from 7% in 2025 to 6.3% in 2026.
World Bank Conclusions on Moldova
Moldova’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 is 1.9%. The forecast for 2027 has been revised downward to 2.9% (which is 0.9 percentage points lower than the spring estimates).
Moldova’s economy is under pressure due to the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East, geopolitical tensions, and rising energy costs, according to the World Bank’s June report. Declining external demand and slow growth in real household incomes are holding back private consumption.
Inflationary pressures persist, and the government budget deficit remains high (above 4% of GDP). The bank’s experts believe that only stable capital investment—driven by expanded government spending funded under the EU Growth Plan for Moldova (€1.9 billion from the European Commission)—can prevent the economy from falling.
In the medium term, a gradual acceleration is expected—GDP growth is projected to reach 3.2% by 2028.
