The culprit is the numerous changes in methodology and several factors that have affected the results of calculations. A recalculation according to a unified system is needed to overcome digital equilibrium, experts say.
Poverty levels
According to the NBS data, in 2025, the share of Moldovans living below the absolute poverty line is 31.1%. Its monetary threshold is 3,764.4 lei per month per person. In extreme poverty (3035,7 lei) in Moldova live 15,1%.
The multidimensional poverty indicator takes into account not only income, but also deprivation in such areas as health care, education, housing conditions and employment.
In 2025, it amounts to 27.4%. These are those citizens who do not have access to centralized sewage system, health insurance, modern heating, etc.
Regional differences have also been identified. In rural areas, the poverty rate reached 40%, while in urban areas it was 21.1%. The highest poverty rate is recorded in the south of the country – 46.5%. The lowest is in the municipality of Chisinau (15.1%).
New methodology
“It is not yet possible to say whether the share of the poor has increased or decreased compared to 2024, as the data for 2025 were determined according to the new methodology, and the statistics for previous years have not yet been recalculated in the new way,” comments Marina Solovieva, Program Director of Expert Grup. – The NBS promised to do it in the near future.
The expert notes that according to the old methodology, in 2024 the share of absolute poverty in Moldova was 33.6%, but the fact that in 2025, according to the new methodology, it is 31.1%, does not mean that this indicator has decreased.
“There have been many changes in the methodology,” she says. – But out of them, we can single out two main ones that most influenced the result of the study.
– First, our absolute (monetary) poverty indicators are calculated on the basis of consumer expenditures, and in 2025, the NBS added expenditures on medical services and medicines to them.”
“Medicine has increased the rich
The NBS gives an example: without the addition of medical expenses, the poverty rate among the population over 64 is 47%, while with the addition, all other data being equal, it is 41%.
“Paradoxically, the need to spend a lot on medicines makes pensioners statistically ‘richer’,” notes Marina Solovieva. – At the same time, the NBS noted that the addition of the medical factor did not distort the overall ratio between the poorest and richest groups, since the richer a person is, the more he usually spends on medicine. Thus, the overall proportions are maintained.”
Second, the 2025 Household Budget Survey sample was changed. It changed the composition of the surveyed population in accordance with the results of the 2024 census.
The elderly added the poor
Compared to the 2014 census, the composition of Moldova’s population in 2024 has undergone major changes in two defining parameters. First, the share of elderly citizens (65 years and older), whose consumption tends to be lower than that of the young, has increased. This statistically “increased” the overall share of the poor.
And secondly, the share of rural population, which is generally poorer than urban population, decreased, and this somewhat “reduced” the total share of absolute poverty.
“Therefore, it is first necessary to recalculate the data for 2024 in a new way, and whether the new indicator will be higher or lower than the previous one depends on what effect will be stronger,” summarizes the expert. – “An ‘improving’ one, due to the inclusion of medicine and the increase in the share of urban population, or a ‘worsening’ one due to the growing share of elderly population in Moldova”.
