Now the market is only forming the first vision of the new season, and most estimates can still change significantly depending on the weather, crop conditions and harvest results. In other words, we are talking more about the starting picture of the 2026/27 season, which the market is trying to re-evaluate and “digest”.
Weather risks, yield problems and potential reduction in export supply are actively factored into prices, Latifundist quotes Victoria Blazhko, head of editorial content and analytics at ASAP Agri, as saying.
Stocks amortize “weather shock”
In mid-May, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released starting projections of global wheat balances for the 2026/27 season. These estimates sounded loud to the market. Production in eight key wheat exporting countries (Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and USA) in the new season may decrease by almost 48 million tons compared to the current season.
At first glance, this looks quite dramatic. It is this figure that is now shaping the mood on the market. If we look deeper, the picture is not so unambiguous.
Despite the significant drop in production, the export supply of the eight largest exporters (i.e. the volumes available for export, taking into account stocks, production and domestic consumption) will be reduced by only 24 million tons – half as much. The reason for the reduction is simple: the market enters the new season with very high transitional residues, effectively amortizing a significant part of the production drop.
USDA estimates that the eight largest wheat exporters will end the 2025/26 season with near-record ending stocks of 74.6 million tons. They could fall to 65.8 million tons in the new season, but that is still in line with the average of the past five years.
In other words, in the 2026/27 season, the global wheat market is coming out of the phase of overly comfortable balance and becoming much more sensitive to weather risks, but it does not yet look truly deficit, notes Victoria Blazhko.
And here the following question arises: where exactly is the supply of marketable grain being lost from? Since this is of fundamental importance both for Ukraine and for countries of the Black Sea region.
The largest reduction of harvest is expected in the USA (- 12 million tons), EU (- 9 million tons), Argentina (- 7 million tons) and Australia (- 6 million tons). In the Black Sea region, the situation looks much more stable: Ukraine may maintain production at around 23 million tons, and Russia – around 86 million tons.
“And this is exactly the key point for the Ukrainian market. The world is indeed losing wheat, but not in the region that forms the main competition to Ukrainian exports,” notes Viktoria Blazhko.
Moreover, the key markets for Ukrainian wheat – MENA (North Africa and the Middle East) and Southeast Asia – may reduce imports in the new season. According to USDA forecasts, in 2026/27 marketing year demand in Southeast Asia will decrease by about 2 million tons, while in MENA countries together with Turkey – by 8 million tons (due to growth of own production).
Turkey, after a weak season, expects a harvest of 21 million tons (+4.2 million tons), while local analysts estimate up to 22-23 million tons. In Iran, production may also increase to 16 million tons, against 13.5 million tons last year.
Although these countries are not key buyers of Ukrainian wheat, they are important for Russian exports. Therefore, a reduction in their imports could redirect Russian volumes to other markets and increase competition with Ukraine.
In parallel, production growth is expected in Egypt and Algeria: up to 10 million tons (against 9.2 million tons) and 4.1 million tons (against 3.2 million tons), respectively.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
This is where the main risk arises for Ukraine. In the current season, the countries of the MENA region accounted for about 46% of Ukrainian wheat exports, with another 13% going to Southeast Asia. That is, almost 60% of Ukrainian exports today depend on those regions where demand may weaken in the new season,” says Viktoriya Blazhko.
This means that even with a tighter global balance, the competition between exporters, primarily between Ukraine and Russia, for buyers will only intensify. At the same time, traditional importers will get even more opportunities to bargain hard on price.
For Ukraine, the situation looks particularly ambiguous also because the country enters the new season with large stocks. With relatively stable production at around 23 million tons, high transitional residues potentially increase export opportunities to 16-17 million tons.
The problem, however, is that even in the current season, Ukraine has failed to fully realize its export potential: wheat exports in 2025/26 are unlikely to exceed 13 million tons, according to ASAP Agri estimates.
“And here we come back to the main question of the new season: if global competition remains high, export supply comfortable, and import demand in key regions starts to weaken, will Ukraine become easier to sell wheat? The market gives a rather negative answer”, – Victoria Blazhko believes.
Moreover, there is a high probability that the problem of accumulation of high transitional residues for Ukraine will not disappear, but on the contrary may intensify in 2026/27. This means that the new season for Ukraine will again be “not about the shortage of wheat in the world, but about a tough fight for the buyer in conditions when this buyer is becoming more and more demanding”.
What does this mean for Moldova?
As Logos Press reported earlier, according to the assessment of the Ministry of Agriculture, this year, the good condition of winter wheat crops, occupying about 353 thousand hectares, allows hoping for a grain harvest of 1.5 million tons. For comparison, last season wheat crops in the country amounted to about 387 thousand hectares, its gross harvest – 1.59 million tons.
That is, the potential harvest of wheat-2026 in the country will remain at last year’s level, and if it decreases, it will not be much.
In the final marketing season-2025/26, as agro-marketing expert Iurie Rizha notes, at least two thirds of the wheat export flow from Moldova fell on the EU countries (Italy, Greece, Romania) and Turkey.
Taking into account this circumstance, the competition between Russia and Ukraine – the largest grain exporters in the Black Sea region – will not directly and strongly affect the situation with Moldovan wheat exports. As it is mostly supplied to other markets.
However, it should be taken into account that a significant share of Moldovan wheat is exported to Romanian ports – hubs through which it is redirected, in particular, to the markets of MENA and other countries, where it may face competition from Ukrainian and Russian grain.
Finally, the geographical proximity of Moldova to two of the TOP-8 largest exporters of wheat to the global market may change the “rules of the game” at any moment of the season, including the situation with logistics and pricing of Moldovan grain.
