“Shuttle ships” are helping to keep global oil prices within a relatively reasonable range and prevent the sharp spike in inflation that many feared at the start of the conflict, according to news agencies.
This “shadow” fleet is operating at full capacity, despite recent attacks on ships. Military vessels provide some protection, but the situation remains tense.
Supply Volumes
Before the war, about 20 million barrels passed through the strait daily—roughly one-fifth of global supply.
Last week, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that 9 million barrels per day had passed through the strait over the previous seven days. This figure surprised many traders, as it is nearly double market estimates (about 4 million barrels), yet still amounts to only half of pre-war levels.
Sources familiar with the situation confirm that the actual volume of “dark” shipments exceeds market estimates of 4 million barrels per day, but they do not disclose the exact figure for security reasons.
Participants and Geography
The UAE (the state-owned company Adnoc) is a key player. The company has stated that, despite repeated attacks, it intends to fulfill its obligations to buyers.
Iraq also actively uses transshipment schemes, as it is one of the exporters hardest hit by the war.
Qatar and Kuwait—their oil also leaves the Middle East via transshipment in the Gulf of Oman.
Saudi Arabia has not yet utilized this scheme on a large scale, but there are signs that it is preparing to do so.
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