Marina Soloviova. Photo by IPN Elena Covalenco
The main concern raised in the comments was that a tax increase on banks could lead to higher interest rates on loans and hurt their customers.
Marina Soloviova, program director at the independent think tank Expert Grup, discusses whether banks could raise rates and, if so, how much more expensive loans would become.
“For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume that banks can fully pass on the losses associated with the increase in the corporate income tax rate to their customers,” she says. “According to the estimate provided by the prime minister, we’re talking about nearly 600 million lei. If we divide this amount by the banks’ total loan portfolio (114 billion lei as of June 2026), it turns out that the average interest rate on loans would need to be raised by half a percentage point (+0.5%).”
The expert explains that, in practice, it is not easy to pass on the costs entirely to customers. If banks could simply raise interest rates on loans, they would have already done so without waiting for the tax increase. Several factors are holding banks back.
First, loan interest rates are already fixed in contracts. These rates are typically variable and can change in response to shifting market conditions. Usually, the interest rate is tied to a predetermined formula: a certain benchmark + the bank’s margin.
For example, for the Prima Casă Plus program, the benchmark is the weighted average interest rate on new deposits in lei with terms ranging from 6 to 12 months, and the margin is fixed at 3%. Of course, banks do have more flexibility when it comes to the terms for issuing new loans, and these loans may become more expensive.
“Second, demand for new bank loans in Moldova is quite elastic,” she explains. “This can be seen in the statistics on new lending: when interest rates rise, the volume of new loans drops significantly, and vice versa. If banks raise interest rates, some customers will either opt out of loans or turn to alternative sources of financing. Alternatives are few and far between here, but they do exist.”
In addition, the law establishes responsible lending standards. For example, an individual’s total costs associated with servicing a loan (including interest and principal payments) cannot exceed 40% of his or her income.
If banks raise interest rates on new loans, some customers will no longer meet these standards and will be “weeded out” purely on an arithmetic basis, even if they agree to pay the higher interest rates. Banks will have to choose: raise interest rates and issue fewer loans, or keep rates the same and issue more loans.
“So my answer to this question is as follows: Yes, due to the increase in the corporate income tax rate, interest rates on loans may rise, but this increase will be modest in the short term and will mainly affect new loans, not existing ones,” notes Marina Soloviova. “Banks won’t be able to pass on the costs entirely to customers, and they’ll simply have to accept a certain reduction in after-tax profits.”
