Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have lowered their targets by about 30%, according to Nikkei Asia. Memory manufacturers are increasingly diverting production capacity to AI servers, leaving smartphone manufacturers without the same volume of components as before.
Xiaomi was the first to revise its forecast. The company had expected to ship about 135 million smartphones in 2026, but that figure may now drop to approximately 95 million devices. By comparison, Xiaomi shipped about 170 million smartphones in 2025.
Oppo and Vivo have also scaled back their plans—to fewer than 90 million devices each. Honor, which shipped 71 million smartphones last year, has warned its partners that maintaining its previous growth rate will be difficult.
The main problem is DRAM memory. Chip manufacturers are shifting resources to the artificial intelligence market: data centers and AI systems require enormous amounts of memory and are willing to pay more.
In this situation, component suppliers are the winners. For example, Micron reported record revenue of $41.46 billion for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, thanks to strong demand from the artificial intelligence market.
For smartphone buyers, the consequences could be significant. According to Gartner’s forecast, the memory shortage will lead to an 8.4% decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026, while average prices will rise by approximately 13%.
“The current situation is unique in terms of the scale of memory price increases and the duration of the shortage,” said Gartner analyst Ranjit Atwal. He estimates that the market may remain under pressure until the end of 2027.
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