As reports Bloomberg citing Argus Media data, the average discount for Urals from Russia’s western ports increased to $23.9 per barrel at the end of the week. This is the first noticeable increase in the discount after the period when restrictions on supplies from the Middle East intensified interest in Russian oil. This is attributed to the fact that market participants began to revise expectations related to the end of the war. Against this background, oil quotations became more volatile.
Additional influence was exerted by political signals. In particular, former U.S. President Donald Trump called Iran’s response to U.S. proposals “unacceptable,” which reduced hopes for a quick diplomatic settlement.
Despite the widening discount, the Urals price itself is still high. According to Argus Media, Urals crude oil in Russia’s western ports on Friday cost about $80.61 a barrel, well above the level set in Russia’s 2026 budget of about $59.
That said, the situation is volatile. Earlier, the US temporarily allowed the purchase of Russian offshore oil to stabilize the market amid supply disruptions from the Middle East. However, this exception expires in the next few days, which may again affect the supply-demand balance.
Experts note that although supplies to India are still at a premium to Brent, it has fallen markedly from $6.75 to about $2.4 per barrel. This indicates that the market is gradually adapting to new conditions, but the final balance of benefits for sellers and buyers is still unclear.
