Presenting the last Inflation Report of the year, the National Bank continues to hold the view that the annual inflation rate will decline. This will take place in line with the return to the target range of below-average fluctuations until the middle of next year.
And only then the inflation rate will begin to register a slight increase, but in general not going beyond the target range. Forecast for the end of 2025. – 6.7% (6.8% in the previous forecast). During the first two quarters of 2026, the annual inflation rate will fall below the boundary of the target range (4.1% – 4.2%), the NBM expects.
At the same time, the updated forecast, starting from the second quarter of 2026, is “on an elevated tone”, unlike the previous one. And it is related to the behavior of core inflation, the annual rate of which “will have a relatively stable trend until the end of next year, then it will slightly increase by the end of the forecast period.”
Food inflation will, from the regulator’s point of view, be on a downward path throughout the following years of the medium-term forecast. The annual level of regulated prices will fall significantly until early next year, then stabilize. And the annual level of fuel prices will not be of concern at all, as it “will be characterized by negative values until the end of 2026”.
