“The annual rate of inflation in the forecast period will record a maximum value of 8.6% in Q4 2026 and a minimum value of 4.1% in Q4 2027 and Q1 2028,” the updated forecast said.
It specifies that this will primarily occur as a result of rising prices for food, fuel, as well as utility tariffs. Earlier, Moldovan Economy Minister Eugen Osmokescu did not rule out that by the end of the year inflation in Moldova may reach double digits.
Earlier, the NBM raised the prime rate from 5% to 6.5% due to the acceleration of inflation. According to the agency, in March, annual inflation in Moldova rose by 0.75 percentage points, to 5.8%, and in the coming months will exceed the established threshold of 6.5%. In October 2022, against the background of rising gas and electricity prices, inflation in Moldova reached a peak of 34.6%, after which it only began to slow down.
This time, the National Bank plans that the annual inflation rate will start to decline from the beginning of 2027, amounting to 7.9% in Q1 and 4.1% in Q4. According to economist Vladimir Golovatiuc, “bearing in mind how the NBM’s previous inflation forecasts were realized, as well as the recent statement of the Minister of Economy of the Republic of Moldova on doubling inflation, it seems that the current benchmarks will be exceeded. In May 2026, the annual inflation rate amounted to 6.8%, increasing by 40% compared to January”.
