Volodymyr Zelenskyy
These are the preliminary estimates of the International Monetary Fund, as cited by Bloomberg.
The new assessment comes against the backdrop of the ongoing war and the high dependence of Ukraine’s public finances on external support, the publication notes. Kyiv had previously warned its international partners of the need to provide additional resources to finance the budget and defence spending.
As reported by Logos Press, in August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stunned guests at the Independence Day celebrations by asking the EU to release €23 billion ahead of schedule this year from a €90 billion loan to plug the hole in the Ministry of Defence’s budget.
Then, at the end of September, Zelenskyy stated that the country would need around $27 billion in additional funding as early as 2026, against a backdrop of rising military expenditure. According to him, Ukraine will also require more than $52 billion in foreign aid for social and humanitarian expenditure in 2027, Reuters notes.
Ukraine’s total requirement is significantly higher
However, analysts point out that the figure of $54 billion should not be equated with Ukraine’s total external financing needs.
In the IMF’s country report published in July, Ukraine’s total financing requirement for 2026–2029 was estimated at $140.3 billion under the baseline scenario. Of this amount, around $128.7 billion is to be met by official financing, a further $8.2 billion was expected to be obtained from the IMF, and the remainder through debt servicing operations.
In the IMF’s January scenario, the total requirement was estimated at a slightly lower figure – $136.5 billion for 2026–2029. The Fund assumed that a significant portion of this amount would be provided by the EU, other international partners and support programmes.
Based on these figures, the current $54 billion external financing gap for Ukraine, as reported by Bloomberg, reflects only a new estimate of the potentially unfunded requirement, rather than the total amount of funds Ukraine will require over this period.
The EU remains a key source of funding
The European Union remains one of the main sources of external support for Ukraine. In the IMF’s current projections for 2026–2029, the EU accounts for more than $105 billion of officially committed funding under the baseline scenario.
The EU has also previously agreed on long-term financial support instruments for Ukraine, including a €90 billion loan for 2026–2027.
These are very substantial sums for the European Union. The European Commission had previously indicated that, by the end of 2025, total support for Ukraine from the EU and its member states had exceeded €193 billion.
Payments already earmarked by Brussels up to 2029 are planned to be roughly of the same magnitude. It is clear that Kyiv is counting on the EU to cover the funding shortfall reported by the IMF.
However, the difficulties faced by the European Union in agreeing the budget for 2028–2034, as reported by Logos Press, and the demand from leading donor countries within the EU to reduce its size cast doubt on whether the EU will be able to fully make up this shortfall.
This means that Ukraine will have to negotiate with international donors for new loans, grants and other forms of support.
This story was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence.The translation was also reviewed by the Logos Press editorial team.
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