Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow to 2.3% in 2027, slightly higher than the 2.1% projected in November, the European Commission said in its Spring 2026 forecast. Romania’s GDP grew by 0.7% last year.
Romania’s economy is expected to stagnate overall this year as fiscal consolidation efforts and persistently high inflation driven by rising energy prices weigh on domestic consumption. Growth is expected to resume next year due to expectations of lower inflation and more favorable financing conditions.
“Prior to the conflict in the Middle East, the rate of increase in overall inflation was expected to slow in the second half of 2026 due to strong base-of-comparison effects. However, the conflict and its impact on energy prices slowed this trend. Consumer price index inflation (HICP) is now projected to average 7% in 2026, down from 6.8% in 2025, before falling to 3.7% in 2027, approaching the National Bank of Romania’s target range (2.5±1%). Government measures, including the postponed liberalization of gas prices for households, have somewhat mitigated the rise in energy prices,” the European Commission said in a statement.
Romania’s budget deficit narrowed to 7.9% of GDP last year from a peak of 9.3% in 2024 thanks to fiscal consolidation packages adopted between December 2024 and September 2025, including nominal wage and pension freezes and tax increases.
The deficit is expected to narrow to 6.2 percent of GDP in 2026 as current spending is assumed to decline. At the same time, tax increases enacted in 2024-2025 are expected to raise revenues by 1.4 percentage points of GDP. In 2027, the deficit is projected to fall further to 5.8 percent of GDP, mainly due to a reduction in government capital spending.
“Fiscal policy has been restrained in 2025, easing in 2026 and becoming neutral in 2027. Defense spending is projected to increase from 1.5% of GDP in 2025 to 1.8% of GDP in 2027, thanks to loans under the SAFE program,” the EU executive added.
Public debt is projected to increase from less than 55% of GDP in 2024 to around 63% of GDP in 2027, mainly due to high primary government deficits and interest payments.
For the EU as a whole, the Commission forecasts bloc GDP growth of 1.1% and 1.4% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
