Brazil Coffee Output to Rise 18% in 2026, Conab Forecast Says
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Conab forecast: Brazil to increase coffee production by 18%

The 2026 harvest in Brazil is estimated at 66.7 million bags (a standard bag of coffee in the International Coffee Organization's ICO measurement system is 60 kg). This is an 18% percent increase over last year's result. If the forecast is confirmed, the result would be a new record in history (statistics maintained by the National Supply Company Conab), exceeding the 2020 figure (63.08 million bags) by 5.74%.
Vadim Chetrari Reading time: 1 minute
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Brazilian coffee

This information is provided on the Brazilian government’s website, citing Conab’s forecast.

The total area under coffee plantations in this largest coffee-producing country is expected to increase by 3.9% and reach 2.34 million hectares. The average coffee yield in Brazil this year is expected to increase by 13% to 34.4 bags per hectare.

Conab estimates Arabica coffee production at 45.8 million bags, up 28% from last year. This is the third highest result in history (after the 2018 and 2020 seasons). The growth is attributed to a positive two-year cycle, expansion of cultivation areas and favorable weather conditions.

For the Conilon (Robusta) variety, 20.9 million bags are expected to be harvested – 0.8% more than last season. The increase is due to the expansion of the area of fruit-bearing plantations (388.22 thousand hectares).

In the state of Minas Gerais, the country’s main coffee-growing region, production of both varieties is estimated at 33.4 million bags, 29.8% more than the total volume produced last season. In Espiritu Santo, the second largest coffee-producing state, growth of 3% is expected to reach 18 million bags. This will be driven by arabica, whose yield is estimated to increase by 27.9%. Significant growth is also expected in the states of São Paulo (up 24.6%), where only arabica is grown, and Rondônia (up 19.4%), where only robusta is grown.


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