The Spanish national team is a potential winner of the 2026 World Cup
During the study, the system ran a thousand match simulations and identified the top contenders for the title. According to the calculations, the Spanish national team has the best chance of becoming world champion—its probability of winning is estimated at 26.1%. They are followed by England (17%), France (13.5%), Argentina (12.4%), and Portugal (10.6%).
The most unexpected result of the simulation was the high assessment of the Norwegian national team’s chances. Despite the fact that the team is not among the traditional favorites of world soccer, the model gave it a 3.6% chance of winning the tournament. The study’s lead researcher, Dr. Benjamin Holmes, called the Norwegian national team the most unexpected contender for the title among the tournament participants.
To predict the results, the algorithm took into account not only the individual qualities of the players but also their interaction on the field, potential injuries and suspensions, as well as external factors, including weather conditions and altitude.
The supercomputer also assessed the chances of contenders for the Golden Boot—the award for the World Cup’s top scorer. The main favorites are Norwegian forward Erling Haaland and Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal. The model predicts an average of 5.2 goals per tournament for each of them.
England captain Harry Kane is also among the main contenders for the title of top scorer.
Previously, this model successfully predicted England’s advancement to the Euro 2024 final, where the team ultimately won the silver medal.
