This is evidenced by a new report from the UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) center ahead of the tenth anniversary of the EU membership referendum.
The report analyzes the consequences of Britain’s exit from the EU and raises questions about the future of relations between London and Brussels, according to RBC. A decade after the referendum, experts point to economic losses and a shift in public opinion
Analysts emphasize that this is not a “one-off crisis,” but rather a gradual decline in trade, investment, and productivity.
At the same time, as UKICE analysts note, after several years during which Brexit was “hardly discussed at all,” British political parties are beginning to raise the issue again.
Labour argues that closer ties with the EU are considered “the biggest prize” available to the UK economy, while the Reform Party and the Conservatives have promised to tear up any new agreements with the EU signed by a Labour cabinet.
Mixed Results and the Desire to “Go Back”
Keir Starmer’s government has sought to “reset” relations with the EU and conclude a series of new cooperation agreements, according to an RBC report. But so far, the “only thing that has been finalized” is the UK’s return to the Erasmus+ program (an EU program that funds education, vocational training, youth, and sports).
According to experts, the “reset” proposed by Labour is unlikely to add more than 0.5% to the UK’s GDP over 15 years.
The authors also note that since the end of 2022, a “clear and sustained majority” of Britons have been in favor of rejoining the EU. On average, according to polls conducted this year, 60% of citizens say this, while 40% would prefer to remain outside the EU.
Furthermore, the report notes that migration from the EU has fallen sharply as a result of Brexit, but this has been “more than offset by an increase in migration from outside the EU, which has had mixed economic consequences.”
The referendum on the UK’s EU membership took place on June 23, 2016, with 51.9% of voters supporting withdrawal. The country formally ceased to be a member of the EU on January 31, 2020, after 47 years of membership.
